PolyPonPon
0x33ad1d3368b37e0095ce59c6873d842429a3f635
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $57.9k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $87.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.066 | $67.01 | −$10.10 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.043 | $9.32 | −$10.68 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.945 | $5.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.895 | 0.960 | $5.36 | +$0.36 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET · Down | 0.319 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.03 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET · Up | 0.322 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$438.28at 0.722Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?
- +$74.14at 0.747US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$56.25at 0.640US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$55.45at 0.646Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$34.76at 0.938Will a White Spoon win season 2 of Culinary Class Wars?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-09 03:22 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | BUY | 0.1422366615 | $60.00 |
| 05-04 10:42 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | BUY | 0.0969999968 | $25.00 |
| 05-04 04:41 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | BUY | 0.089921875 | $11.51 |
| 05-02 15:50 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $41.60 |
| 05-02 10:27 | Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | SELL | 0.04 | $2.19 |
| 05-02 10:27 | Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? | SELL | 0.0144148404 | $1.87 |
| 05-02 10:27 | Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | SELL | 0.014 | $1.40 |
| 05-02 10:26 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 05-02 10:25 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $46.66 |
| 04-14 06:27 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | BUY | 0.0869999944 | $13.16 |
| 04-14 06:26 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.2020010089 | $18.94 |
| 03-30 09:52 | Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6799999996 | $62.44 |
| 03-29 13:51 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.094 | $11.75 |
| 03-12 14:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.52 | $2.52 |
| 03-10 02:27 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.2105401396 | $54.58 |