Cazfanel
0x32cedef1dbb5cc25cdf0c8bffd2b7595aa979040
- Realised P&L
- $-468.45
- Volume
- $23.3k
- Markets traded
- 1,157
- Open portfolio
- $18.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,157
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No | 0.580 | 0.485 | $9.70 | −$1.90 |
| Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.460 | $9.20 | −$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.52at 0.550Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
- +$16.40at 0.200Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $195 in September?
- +$12.64at 0.050Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
- +$9.78at 0.220Will BTS headline Coachella 2027?
- +$9.71at 0.340Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 12:48 | Will no live-action Miles Morales actor be chosen by end of 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.20 |
| 10-16 03:51 | Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 10-15 20:08 | Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 10-15 20:06 | Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 10-15 13:15 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 10-15 12:34 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 10-15 11:48 | Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.48 | $8.73 |
| 10-15 11:27 | Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $323,000 and $327,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.59 | $11.80 |
| 10-14 14:12 | Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.50 |
| 10-14 14:10 | Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.55 |
| 10-13 07:45 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 10-11 09:15 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 10-10 20:30 | Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 10-10 19:09 | Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $8.76 |
| 10-10 19:02 | Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $2.99 |