0x327779de0cb7c9efd65616a7edeaeebe75084d96
- Realised P&L
- $-718.57
- Volume
- $73.0k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $151.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.079 | $57.60 | −$9.56 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.090 | $40.91 | −$9.09 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.015 | $34.52 | −$15.47 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.060 | $18.56 | −$2.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$84.54at 0.623Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$75.82at 0.767Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$50.00at 0.500Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$2.35at 0.955No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$-44.18at 0.033Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 13:45 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0921160398 | $67.16 |
| 08-01 13:43 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? | BUY | 0.0209999996 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 13:42 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.1099999982 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 13:42 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0684810577 | $21.19 |
| 05-15 21:04 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? | BUY | 0.0334045426 | $44.18 |
| 05-15 21:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | BUY | 0.6239205067 | $50.00 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $12.42 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $1.25 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $0.39 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $0.52 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $0.54 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $0.63 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $0.57 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $0.52 |
| 05-15 21:02 | Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Medvedev | BUY | 0.001 | $0.43 |