PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

frogcast

0x31afe78ea1d3222a2da50ba8e3e383c8d6945c86

Realised P&L
$1.3k
Volume
$254.1k
Markets traded
5,996
Open portfolio
$2.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded5,996
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration3.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 19? · No0.4840.935$96.50+$46.50
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 20? · No0.9470.970$71.73+$1.73
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 20? · No0.8400.950$62.20+$7.20
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on September 18? · No0.8201.000$60.96+$10.96
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on September 19? · No0.8701.000$57.44+$7.44
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 20? · No0.9200.960$57.39+$2.39
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9? · Yes0.3551.000$56.92+$36.71
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 19? · No0.9701.000$56.67+$1.67
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on September 18? · No0.8901.000$56.15+$6.15
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 19? · No0.8981.000$55.65+$5.65
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 19? · No0.7300.810$55.48+$5.48
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on September 18? · No0.9101.000$54.92+$4.92
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 20? · No0.9600.940$53.85$1.15
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 18? · No0.9351.000$53.45+$3.45
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on September 20? · No0.8900.940$52.80+$2.81

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-19 03:18Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on September 20?BUY0.8686084874$50.00
09-19 00:52Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 20?BUY0.89$11.35
09-19 00:15Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 19?BUY0.9$9.11
09-19 00:11Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 19?BUY0.9$13.38
09-19 00:00Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on September 19?BUY0.95$25.26
09-18 20:29Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on September 20?BUY0.9499999991$50.00
09-18 20:12Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 20?BUY0.9$50.00
09-18 20:12Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on September 20?BUY0.9699999996$50.00
09-18 20:11Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on September 19?BUY0.94$15.98
09-18 20:11Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on September 19?BUY0.9$29.65
09-18 19:21Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20?BUY0.97$9.70
09-18 18:55Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 20?BUY0.9314308361$50.00
09-18 18:49Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20?BUY0.97$5.82
09-18 18:06Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20?BUY0.9654495913$10.63
09-18 17:59Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20?BUY0.97$5.82