frogcast
0x31afe78ea1d3222a2da50ba8e3e383c8d6945c86
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $254.1k
- Markets traded
- 5,996
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,996
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration3.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$308.08at 0.284Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17?
- +$215.74at 0.354Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
- +$215.42at 0.384Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on July 1?
- +$211.91at 0.266XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
- +$208.15at 0.175Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 03:18 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.8686084874 | $50.00 |
| 09-19 00:52 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.89 | $11.35 |
| 09-19 00:15 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.11 |
| 09-19 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.9 | $13.38 |
| 09-19 00:00 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.95 | $25.26 |
| 09-18 20:29 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.9499999991 | $50.00 |
| 09-18 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.9 | $50.00 |
| 09-18 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.9699999996 | $50.00 |
| 09-18 20:11 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.94 | $15.98 |
| 09-18 20:11 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.9 | $29.65 |
| 09-18 19:21 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.97 | $9.70 |
| 09-18 18:55 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.9314308361 | $50.00 |
| 09-18 18:49 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.82 |
| 09-18 18:06 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.9654495913 | $10.63 |
| 09-18 17:59 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.82 |