0x30C4570Eb1c5a3EFB1aAD2639A2Cd135bAA7a0AD-1767739722511
0x30c4570eb1c5a3efb1aad2639a2cd135baa7a0ad
- Realised P&L
- $199.41
- Volume
- $31.5k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $213.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.810 | $213.16 | +$13.16 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.202 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.328 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.372 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.99 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$179.76at 0.207Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$112.00at 0.250US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$46.57at 0.512Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$28.49at 0.172Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$20.30at 0.900Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:21 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999992 | $200.00 |
| 09-16 09:30 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999999 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 17:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.63 | $277.20 |
| 09-08 14:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 09-07 13:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $220.00 |
| 07-14 20:10 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3724999979 | $50.00 |
| 07-11 22:28 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2024999921 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 22:03 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 22:02 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3279999964 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 22:02 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0299999971 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 17:55 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.0239999977 | $10.00 |
| 01-24 01:29 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $9.00 |
| 01-24 01:28 | Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million? | SELL | 0.024 | $1.92 |
| 01-24 01:28 | Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million? | SELL | 0.0695203024 | $2.48 |
| 01-24 01:28 | Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million? | SELL | 0.0219295372 | $3.37 |