spoonable
0x30ad66f38fc367fa20bf020bf339cafd9b34b098
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $71.8k
- Markets traded
- 201
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded201
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · Yes | 0.857 | 0.721 | $600.23 | −$113.51 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.959 | 0.985 | $269.16 | +$7.11 |
| Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.982 | $176.76 | +$23.76 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.735 | $147.00 | +$1.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.865 | $86.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.745 | $74.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? · No | 0.911 | 0.859 | $56.56 | −$3.44 |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? · No | 0.920 | 1.000 | $54.97 | +$4.37 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by November 30? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.649 | $3.25 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$570.00at 0.430Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
- +$375.46at 0.841US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
- +$370.96at 0.280Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open?
- +$345.10at 0.660Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
- +$269.99at 0.250Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 14:39 | Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.9107238218 | $60.00 |
| 10-27 11:31 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9494107315 | $600.00 |
| 10-26 19:41 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 10-26 19:40 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.945 | $37.80 |
| 10-26 19:05 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.997 | $199.40 |
| 10-26 19:05 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.808 | $80.80 |
| 10-26 17:02 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9238774399 | $250.00 |
| 10-26 13:27 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.759 | $3.79 |
| 10-26 08:55 | Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | BUY | 0.996 | $136.45 |
| 10-25 22:17 | Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | BUY | 0.922 | $12.92 |
| 10-25 20:46 | Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.81 | $162.00 |
| 10-25 07:37 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? | BUY | 0.71 | $99.28 |
| 10-20 09:44 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.727 | $21.80 |
| 10-20 07:20 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | SELL | 0.29 | $25.98 |
| 10-20 07:20 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | SELL | 0.3 | $49.62 |