0x309C522b164538B1Ce012dE313337358f78a415D-1763405394682
0x309c522b164538b1ce012de313337358f78a415d
- Realised P&L
- $-235.50
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $101.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-20.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? · Yes | 0.765 | 0.380 | $84.48 | −$85.58 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.070 | $15.51 | −$86.49 |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.858 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.92 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.38 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.278 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$121.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.58at 0.431Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$4.26at 0.190Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
- +$3.25at 0.350Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
- +$2.13at 0.320Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.22at 0.450Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-01 07:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.5199999915 | $7.38 |
| 02-28 07:55 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 02-13 18:27 | Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 02-11 23:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5233930797 | $20.35 |
| 02-11 23:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $0.97 |
| 02-11 23:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 02-11 23:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET | BUY | 0.9799991572 | $1.00 |
| 02-11 21:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET | BUY | 0.7 | $0.98 |
| 02-11 21:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $0.97 |
| 02-11 20:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9299997117 | $1.00 |
| 02-11 20:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 02-11 20:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 02-11 19:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.74 | $2.69 |
| 02-11 19:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $2.72 |
| 02-09 21:55 | US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $1.00 |