0x30901903cfda5ea72d68d6815b1aafddaade79df
0x30901903cfda5ea72d68d6815b1aafddaade79df
- Realised P&L
- $3.85
- Volume
- $344.89
- Markets traded
- 108
- Open portfolio
- $4.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded108
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.470 | 0.955 | $2.87 | +$1.46 |
| Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.490 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · No | 0.780 | 0.445 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$5.14at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.01at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?
- +$2.95at 0.410Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$2.54at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 18:30 | Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:24 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:21 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:41 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:30 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:17 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5539997396 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:46 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4449998042 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:40 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 23:13 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7409998162 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:38 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:20 | Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.5939998883 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 22:17 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 14:17 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |