0x30075bdf30d53c480278110c1ce6c16ddbe7ec18
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $2.40
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.056 | $2.40 | −$7.60 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.589 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.74 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.48at 0.290Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$5.28at 0.430US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 16:56 | Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? | BUY | 0.2308491241 | $10.00 |
| 04-09 05:07 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.588999983 | $13.74 |
| 02-19 02:13 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999827 | $3.98 |
| 02-19 02:08 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999846 | $10.00 |
| 12-30 03:40 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 12-30 03:38 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 12-30 03:37 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | BUY | 0.1322761671 | $10.00 |