echo165135
0x2ff4c22c59a0b45f33078a56b583e7ec238017d1
- Realised P&L
- $-338.71
- Volume
- $239.6k
- Markets traded
- 216
- Open portfolio
- $18.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded216
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.055 | $14.03 | −$34.42 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.046 | $2.30 | −$20.70 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.073 | $2.06 | −$3.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$850.23at 0.073China-Vietnam trade deal before June?
- +$640.72at 0.271TikTok on App Store again before March?
- +$607.04at 0.069Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$557.84at 0.117Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$550.35at 0.040Major cyberattack on Iran in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 09:02 | Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? | BUY | 0.076 | $57.00 |
| 05-04 09:00 | Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? | BUY | 0.075 | $1.13 |
| 05-04 09:00 | Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? | BUY | 0.075 | $58.76 |
| 04-18 00:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | BUY | 0.33 | $15.62 |
| 04-05 11:35 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $47.51 |
| 04-05 11:32 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $154.12 |
| 04-02 05:22 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6 | $27.64 |
| 03-30 11:03 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.00 |
| 03-30 08:34 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $11.89 |
| 03-30 08:33 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.03 |
| 03-30 08:33 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | SELL | 0.29 | $5.80 |
| 03-29 00:35 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $22.19 |
| 03-21 12:34 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.56 | $60.77 |
| 03-16 22:11 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $82.76 |
| 03-14 23:06 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $80.01 |