prediction1997
0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643
- Realised P&L
- $64.6k
- Volume
- $972.7k
- Markets traded
- 1,018
- Open portfolio
- $515.16
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,018
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.587 | 0.955 | $202.91 | +$78.19 |
| Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · No | 0.434 | 0.960 | $145.58 | +$79.76 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.915 | $91.50 | +$5.50 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? · Yes | 0.824 | 0.835 | $54.27 | +$0.72 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes | 0.915 | 0.205 | $21.25 | −$73.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.241Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$3.5kat 0.663Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
- +$2.9kat 0.438Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
- +$2.8kat 0.553Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$2.5kat 0.706Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 20:05 | Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.98 | $24.50 |
| 08-04 20:01 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.98 | $49.00 |
| 08-04 20:00 | Will Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.9525688073 | $103.83 |
| 08-04 15:59 | Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31? | SELL | 0.97 | $86.57 |
| 08-04 15:50 | Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $297.00 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.4853759094 | $850.00 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.3499999998 | $850.00 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.4893758596 | $850.00 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31? | BUY | 0.36477842 | $141.99 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.5866973434 | $850.00 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.4337989473 | $367.58 |
| 08-03 20:05 | Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 08-03 20:05 | Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8146987174 | $88.29 |
| 08-03 14:00 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July? | BUY | 0.9441905374 | $367.20 |
| 07-31 14:00 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July? | BUY | 0.7688522437 | $303.78 |