fillit98
0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643
- Realised P&L
- $77.2k
- Volume
- $1.11M
- Markets traded
- 1,158
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,158
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? · Yes | 0.912 | 0.934 | $648.35 | +$15.00 |
| US x China tariff agreement by October 31? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.890 | $373.80 | +$21.00 |
| US x China tariff agreement by September 30? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.815 | $152.38 | +$0.88 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.065 | $147.18 | −$11.32 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.064 | $146.05 | +$18.55 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.065 | $52.00 | −$9.00 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.685 | $34.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.385 | $19.25 | −$6.75 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes | 0.915 | 0.185 | $19.18 | −$75.67 |
| Counter-Strike: Just Players vs ENCE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A · Just Players | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.241Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$3.5kat 0.663Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
- +$2.9kat 0.439Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
- +$2.8kat 0.553Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$2.6kat 0.650Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 01:48 | US x China tariff agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $352.80 |
| 09-23 23:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $40.00 |
| 09-23 23:05 | US x China tariff agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.8137480308 | $82.00 |
| 09-23 23:00 | US x China tariff agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.8062412993 | $69.50 |
| 09-23 12:30 | Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7956779613 | $419.63 |
| 09-23 11:00 | Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.886 | $44.30 |
| 09-23 02:39 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | SELL | 0.999 | $204.32 |
| 09-23 02:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $21.00 |
| 09-22 18:57 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9589999999 | $408.00 |
| 09-22 18:57 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $408.00 |
| 09-22 18:57 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $408.00 |
| 09-22 12:15 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.5440413771 | $137.79 |
| 09-22 12:15 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.899 | $183.86 |
| 09-22 12:15 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.6314925373 | $42.31 |
| 09-22 12:15 | Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.62 | $10.37 |