0x2F44d5b32D9934C1f81e475Dbe07dDe9E223720a-1768392975073
0x2f44d5b32d9934c1f81e475dbe07dde9e223720a
- Realised P&L
- $-614.08
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $90.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.380 | $82.87 | +$30.53 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.153 | 0.046 | $7.63 | −$17.47 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.548 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$490.34 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · No | 0.855 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.85 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.338 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.41 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$85.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.50at 0.440US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
- +$39.63at 0.600Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?
- +$29.45at 0.079Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
- +$10.62at 0.769Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$7.52at 0.931US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 14:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.54 | $108.00 |
| 08-11 02:20 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.58 | $101.77 |
| 08-04 11:56 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.2399999969 | $52.34 |
| 07-29 14:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.76 | $34.97 |
| 07-22 13:27 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $25.01 |
| 07-22 04:28 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.153 | $25.09 |
| 04-23 00:58 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.9459999936 | $2.66 |
| 03-21 18:06 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 03-06 15:52 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.99 |
| 03-03 13:05 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | BUY | 0.971 | $5.83 |
| 03-03 13:03 | DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? | SELL | 0.41 | $6.95 |
| 03-02 00:56 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? | BUY | 0.5996210686 | $79.12 |
| 03-01 15:30 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.4799999827 | $10.00 |
| 03-01 15:25 | DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 12:34 | US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.439999996 | $43.61 |