riskybet92
0x2f03c2a4ea6cdb5e0eac5c29a58981339c70ec6a
- Realised P&L
- $159.10
- Volume
- $702.1k
- Markets traded
- 103
- Open portfolio
- $6.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded103
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.507 | 0.506 | $6.3k | −$14.25 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.375 | $28.06 | +$4.11 |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Spread: England (-1.5) · England | 0.184 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$720.00 |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.89 |
| Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) · Cabo Verde | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$700.00 |
| IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$270.00 |
| Spread: Norway (-1.5) · Norway | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$189.29 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.216 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.00 |
| Spread: Germany (-2.5) · Germany | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.4kat 0.431Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.330Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?
- +$1.4kat 0.434Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
- +$1.3kat 0.280Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?
- +$1.2kat 0.190Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 20:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $23.94 |
| 07-19 22:30 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5140233983 | $3.5k |
| 07-19 22:22 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.500193242 | $2.5k |
| 07-19 22:12 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.489953558 | $211.00 |
| 07-19 21:55 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | SELL | 0.0845377794 | $218.79 |
| 07-19 21:38 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3949999996 | $338.40 |
| 07-19 21:37 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | SELL | 0.999 | $350.46 |
| 07-19 21:25 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3274999572 | $4.00 |
| 07-19 21:23 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3074999997 | $608.46 |
| 07-19 21:22 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | SELL | 0.999 | $633.92 |
| 07-19 19:36 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 18:32 | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.3499999992 | $192.77 |
| 07-19 18:31 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.585 | $199.15 |
| 07-19 18:31 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5874999992 | $200.00 |
| 07-19 18:31 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | SELL | 0.32 | $216.73 |