0x2e8c70a3c1e3a9fcd69dc426dd7699dc3a7b568a
0x2e8c70a3c1e3a9fcd69dc426dd7699dc3a7b568a
- Realised P&L
- $-54.83
- Volume
- $870.06
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $41.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.825 | $12.87 | +$1.17 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.710 | 0.970 | $10.25 | +$2.75 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.740 | 0.845 | $9.42 | +$1.17 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.184 | 0.978 | $5.32 | +$4.32 |
| Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.865 | $4.08 | −$0.02 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.004 | $0.03 | −$1.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.59at 0.203US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$16.48at 0.154Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$14.02at 0.146Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$7.20at 0.410Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
- +$6.94at 0.615Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 20:48 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.05 |
| 10-05 20:48 | Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.80 |
| 08-16 15:36 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $11.70 |
| 07-21 03:24 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.8699999873 | $4.10 |
| 07-20 17:29 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.73999993 | $8.25 |
| 07-20 17:28 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.3029999326 | $2.87 |
| 07-15 19:53 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3324999128 | $1.43 |
| 07-15 19:53 | Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4249997875 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 19:52 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.199 | $1.61 |
| 07-15 19:52 | Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.96 |
| 07-11 12:14 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2474999615 | $4.72 |
| 07-11 12:14 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5799999855 | $16.03 |
| 07-10 19:00 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.5999999889 | $10.82 |
| 07-10 18:59 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | SELL | 0.968 | $9.68 |
| 07-10 18:58 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $4.85 |