0x2e61f64f38640502e451cba4663bac72147eaf78
0x2e61f64f38640502e451cba4663bac72147eaf78
- Realised P&L
- $-2.77
- Volume
- $316.41
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $38.81
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.975 | 0.989 | $35.48 | +$0.48 |
| Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.065 | $2.28 | −$2.72 |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.978 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Trump say “Crooked Hillary” by February 28? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Trump talk to Mette Frederiksen in February? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.98at 0.580Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
- +$1.61at 0.383Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$0.16at 0.710Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$0.00at 0.998Will Trump say "Genius" this week? (January 25)
- +$-0.51at 0.304Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-08 20:11 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | SELL | 0.962 | $4.97 |
| 02-12 19:42 | Will Trump say “Crooked Hillary” by February 28? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 02-12 16:45 | Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? | BUY | 0.1424068442 | $5.00 |
| 02-12 16:25 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SELL | 0.72 | $11.15 |
| 01-26 23:36 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.975 | $17.00 |
| 01-26 23:34 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.975 | $18.00 |
| 01-21 23:27 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0169999918 | $2.00 |
| 01-21 23:23 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.2709998686 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 23:23 | Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.3829997721 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 23:19 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 23:11 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | BUY | 0.5799998144 | $3.00 |
| 01-21 03:24 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.7099999509 | $11.00 |
| 01-21 03:24 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SELL | 0.29 | $10.49 |
| 01-21 03:24 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.3041926686 | $11.00 |
| 01-21 03:15 | Will Trump talk to Mette Frederiksen in February? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |