sha-mt
0x2e4ffbd5381cfe7004030380e48fff2a8d1cd3a5
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $42.7k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $834.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.085 | $389.49 | −$412.59 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.055 | $330.00 | −$200.00 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.055 | $105.76 | −$34.20 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.973 | $9.72 | +$0.53 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.50 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.60 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$894.57 |
| Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.75 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · No | 0.262 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$709.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.278Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$10.66at 0.701NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.81at 0.310Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
- +$0.50at 0.500MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20?
- +$-0.50at 0.500MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 20:23 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7009999906 | $10.00 |
| 08-20 20:23 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.701 | $15.00 |
| 08-16 03:00 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.26 |
| 08-02 07:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $47.19 |
| 08-02 06:57 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.1783564586 | $996.34 |
| 08-02 06:36 | Russia coup attempt in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $98.35 |
| 08-02 06:30 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $495.00 |
| 08-02 06:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | BUY | 0.24 | $960.00 |
| 05-15 13:48 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.252621775 | $1.0k |
| 05-11 18:55 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | BUY | 0.2221025353 | $893.48 |
| 04-21 17:50 | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | BUY | 0.83 | $20.75 |
| 04-21 17:48 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | BUY | 0.26 | $15.60 |
| 04-13 14:38 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |