0x2e2e8c6c8dcb43842f408cb386245788d2f631ea
0x2e2e8c6c8dcb43842f408cb386245788d2f631ea
- Realised P&L
- $40.58
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $253.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%? · No | 0.918 | 0.951 | $61.81 | +$2.15 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.883 | 0.878 | $43.92 | −$0.22 |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.695 | $41.70 | +$0.30 |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $29.25 | −$0.45 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.325 | $29.25 | +$0.45 |
| Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.140 | $19.54 | +$0.09 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.181 | $13.61 | −$1.01 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.274 | 0.243 | $8.52 | −$1.07 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.115 | $6.33 | −$1.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.78at 0.371Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
- +$6.14at 0.875Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
- +$5.25at 0.360Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
- +$4.83at 0.131Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$3.10at 0.699Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 06:08 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.69 | $41.40 |
| 10-22 06:06 | Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.31 | $31.00 |
| 10-22 04:03 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $28.80 |
| 10-22 02:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | SELL | 0.926 | $4.63 |
| 10-22 01:02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.73 | $29.20 |
| 10-21 21:04 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 10-21 20:03 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $26.80 |
| 10-21 20:01 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.802 | $24.06 |
| 10-21 19:04 | Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.33 | $29.70 |
| 10-21 17:01 | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | SELL | 0.51 | $17.85 |
| 10-21 15:04 | Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.17 | $25.50 |
| 10-21 12:05 | Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%? | BUY | 0.918 | $59.67 |
| 10-21 05:06 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | SELL | 0.28 | $51.80 |
| 10-21 02:02 | Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.47 |
| 10-21 01:20 | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.36 | $12.60 |