scout
0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3
- Realised P&L
- $306.9k
- Volume
- $53.42M
- Markets traded
- 1,025
- Open portfolio
- $644.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,025
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.976 | 1.000 | $250.1k | +$6.0k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.825 | $239.3k | −$7.3k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.934 | 0.955 | $105.6k | +$2.4k |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.754 | 0.670 | $26.8k | −$3.4k |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.935 | $9.3k | +$550.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.945 | 0.992 | $8.9k | +$426.35 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.975 | $3.9k | +$182.31 |
| 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.225 | $450.00 | −$250.00 |
| Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government? · Yashar | 0.620 | 0.510 | $9.85 | −$2.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.9kat 0.249Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$29.2kat 0.871US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$21.0kat 0.980Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$20.0kat 0.935Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$14.5kat 0.989Netanyahu out by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:18 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.35 | $700.00 |
| 11-01 17:34 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.9k |
| 10-31 20:54 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $7.7k |
| 10-31 20:30 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.9k |
| 10-31 19:43 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9957943856 | $13.4k |
| 10-31 19:42 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9894108655 | $4.2k |
| 10-31 19:30 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9902140461 | $5.0k |
| 10-31 19:29 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9919255001 | $6.7k |
| 10-31 19:27 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.6k |
| 10-31 19:10 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9739986188 | $3.5k |
| 10-31 18:15 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.929 | $8.4k |
| 10-31 17:50 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.861 | $1.2k |
| 10-31 17:00 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9939520536 | $54.5k |
| 10-31 16:26 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6375961496 | $2.8k |
| 10-31 16:22 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5689758046 | $633.75 |