0x2D650c4bBF4b7DbD69E21732dfedf2E8c640E45D-1774169936678
0x2d650c4bbf4b7dbd69e21732dfedf2e8c640e45d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $5.9k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $507.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-17.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.083 | $304.05 | −$1.1k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.895 | 0.954 | $202.42 | +$12.42 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.011 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.22at 0.716Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27?
- +$51.73at 0.162Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.51at 0.746Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
- +$-1.50at 0.155Will Trump visit China by May 15?
- +$-2.00at 0.006Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 14:07 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.05 |
| 05-08 15:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.06 |
| 05-07 19:59 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8? | BUY | 0.117 | $1.17 |
| 05-07 19:52 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.50 |
| 05-07 19:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 05-07 19:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.063 | $3.80 |
| 05-07 19:47 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.942 | $10.52 |
| 04-04 20:34 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.2651407369 | $80.22 |
| 04-04 11:31 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.263040933 | $100.00 |
| 04-03 19:50 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.2984540082 | $100.00 |
| 04-03 19:44 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999854 | $10.00 |
| 04-03 19:42 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026? | BUY | 0.0204508939 | $1.00 |
| 04-03 15:57 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699492495 | $100.00 |
| 04-03 10:15 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.4421731954 | $1000.00 |
| 04-01 21:53 | Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | BUY | 0.5704917967 | $15.00 |