grandmothergrammy
0x2d5b3079bf3b19198640f4a7267d414d20a1e94b
- Realised P&L
- $-150.92
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $337.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.713 | 0.790 | $196.00 | +$19.00 |
| Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? · No | 0.590 | 0.735 | $141.69 | +$27.95 |
| Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will Chromakopia (Tyler the Creator) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.292 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
| Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in February? · Yes | 0.725 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$208.48 |
| Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$115.49at 0.438Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
- +$80.55at 0.512Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by July 31, 2026?
- +$69.89at 0.740Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?
- +$43.88at 0.779Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?
- +$27.15at 0.724Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 04:59 | Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.5899999979 | $113.74 |
| 09-15 04:58 | SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | SELL | 0.53 | $117.76 |
| 09-15 04:47 | SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.539999998 | $119.98 |
| 08-22 09:07 | Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7134299944 | $177.00 |
| 07-28 13:23 | Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026? | BUY | 0.540173636 | $58.00 |
| 06-30 07:17 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $27.62 |
| 06-30 06:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2921129446 | $31.00 |
| 06-30 06:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $55.00 |
| 06-30 06:55 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | SELL | 0.993 | $100.14 |
| 06-30 06:55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2454681701 | $17.20 |
| 06-15 19:28 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4207394739 | $29.48 |
| 06-15 19:27 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.7238010897 | $73.00 |
| 06-15 19:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5068314501 | $96.89 |
| 05-28 14:11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999995 | $112.79 |
| 05-12 13:43 | Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? | BUY | 0.7223283703 | $150.00 |