hexabyte
0x2d33d8052b7934cee4219c49535b04133bb82c30
- Realised P&L
- $-41.66
- Volume
- $9.2k
- Markets traded
- 179
- Open portfolio
- $4.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded179
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.278 | 0.540 | $2.78 | +$1.35 |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31? · No | 0.240 | 0.225 | $1.40 | −$0.09 |
| T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B: Romania vs Serbia · Serbia | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.69 |
| Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.44 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.36 |
| Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.46 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.08 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.77 |
| Bogota: Tristan McCormick vs Pedro Sakamoto · Pedro Sakamoto | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.43at 0.350Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$16.22at 0.058Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
- +$14.31at 0.215US military action against Iran before August?
- +$5.32at 0.477Trump x Putin talk before July?
- +$5.23at 0.440Will Elon register the America Party in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 10:01 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.43 |
| 07-27 22:02 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31? | BUY | 0.2399998905 | $1.49 |
| 07-27 18:01 | Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2399998882 | $1.46 |
| 07-20 00:16 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998571 | $1.36 |
| 07-17 20:16 | Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.26999988 | $1.44 |
| 07-16 20:17 | Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2779999079 | $1.43 |
| 07-12 09:59 | Cuiabá EC to score first vs. São Bernardo FC? | SELL | 0.61 | $1.04 |
| 07-12 09:59 | Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Viking FK: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.35 | $1.16 |
| 07-12 09:59 | Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.118 | $1.21 |
| 07-12 09:59 | Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.78 |
| 07-12 09:59 | Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.10 |
| 07-09 06:39 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999333 | $1.52 |
| 07-08 19:53 | Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999031 | $1.49 |
| 07-08 19:53 | Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30? | BUY | 0.2699998931 | $1.49 |
| 07-07 17:10 | T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B: Romania vs Serbia | BUY | 0.26 | $1.69 |