PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

primefire

0x2cd8b0dac538cea90ea9d793be5eac774feff530

Realised P&L
$9.75
Volume
$5.1k
Markets traded
34
Open portfolio
$5.68

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded34
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample20 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)65.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31? · Yes0.1100.095$1.73−$0.27
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? · Yes0.2100.160$1.52−$0.48
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for North Korea by December 31? · Yes0.0380.025$1.32−$0.68
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31? · Yes0.0900.100$1.11+$0.11
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.4600.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 · Over0.0030.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0060.000$0.00−$1.00
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 · Over0.0120.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? · Yes0.4200.000$0.00−$1.00
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 · Over0.2170.000$0.00−$1.00
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00−$1.00
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance · Belgium0.2600.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-15 00:40Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?BUY0.0899999928$1.00
10-15 00:40Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?BUY0.2099999895$2.00
10-15 00:40Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?BUY0.1099999951$2.00
10-15 00:40Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for North Korea by December 31?BUY0.037827352$2.00
10-02 02:34Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?SELL0.622$9.06
10-01 03:51Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.7599999848$2.00
09-30 21:02Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.8382394545$10.00
09-04 06:30Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?SELL0.955$1.73
08-27 07:35Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?BUY0.4599997608$1.00
08-21 10:41Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?BUY0.7219998859$1.00
08-21 10:39Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8449998944$1.00
08-21 10:39Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?BUY0.55$1.00
08-21 10:38Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?BUY0.059999946$1.00
07-16 03:41Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?BUY0.2699999806$10.00
07-14 21:06France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5SELL0.9975$25.25