nirton
0x2cafe1bbc44826afa61758563ad63a7e8b651fce
- Realised P&L
- $63.32
- Volume
- $9.6k
- Markets traded
- 157
- Open portfolio
- $107.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded157
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.98at 0.362Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
- +$17.19at 0.171Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?
- +$11.93at 0.340Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$11.40at 0.140Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
- +$9.80at 0.154Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:58 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 16:11 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 08-29 19:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August? | BUY | 0.75 | $6.00 |
| 08-29 19:27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August? | BUY | 0.1099999521 | $2.00 |
| 08-26 12:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? | BUY | 0.1099999521 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 23:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | SELL | 0.92 | $5.52 |
| 08-25 23:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | SELL | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 08-25 23:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 23:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 08-25 20:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 19:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9099995859 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 19:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8599999935 | $8.00 |
| 08-25 19:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? | BUY | 0.6699996951 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 19:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 10:09 | Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.049 | $2.21 |