0x2c76244c5cc9098ed3270b0c7a805300031a8487
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $30.5k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.125 | $940.95 | −$559.04 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.255 | $880.97 | −$148.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$189.33at 0.728Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$68.53at 0.879Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$37.21at 0.931Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
- +$36.07at 0.945Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
- +$32.22at 0.869US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 08:52 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2978752433 | $1.0k |
| 08-26 08:50 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1992666543 | $1.5k |
| 08-26 08:49 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9786865288 | $1.0k |
| 08-18 15:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999997 | $500.00 |
| 08-13 15:06 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.930734447 | $500.00 |
| 08-13 15:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7299999987 | $493.33 |
| 08-13 15:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.9806854085 | $282.21 |
| 08-11 12:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $20.00 |
| 08-11 12:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.0599999972 | $20.00 |
| 08-11 12:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.8687306108 | $250.00 |
| 08-10 04:28 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $242.27 |
| 08-05 09:28 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2299999994 | $250.00 |
| 08-04 09:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25477682 | $500.00 |
| 08-04 07:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5187013789 | $500.00 |
| 07-29 13:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7799999997 | $500.00 |