mamenshow
0x2c3689178e4f95661753bfe70940cef2ab390355
- Realised P&L
- $18.69
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $49.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.775 | $17.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.875 | $16.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.375 | $9.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.710 | 0.601 | $6.17 | −$1.13 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.372 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.54 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.36at 0.483Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?
- +$20.92at 0.566Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?
- +$15.20at 0.502Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?
- +$8.50at 0.950US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?
- +$6.81at 0.963US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 14:28 | Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $7.30 |
| 10-13 14:26 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 10-13 00:37 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.7699999923 | $17.00 |
| 10-13 00:37 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.889999999 | $17.00 |
| 10-13 00:31 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.3699999897 | $9.00 |
| 10-13 00:24 | Will Criciúma EC vs. América FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.16 |
| 10-13 00:09 | Will Criciúma EC vs. América FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.92 |
| 10-12 23:41 | Will Criciúma EC vs. América FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.29 | $5.80 |
| 10-11 21:02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.9729999817 | $37.26 |
| 10-11 19:04 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-11? | SELL | 0.999 | $37.13 |
| 10-11 17:16 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | SELL | 0.967 | $14.13 |
| 10-11 17:15 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-11? | BUY | 0.8199999943 | $17.28 |
| 10-11 17:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | SELL | 0.967 | $17.44 |
| 10-10 10:27 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.9609999998 | $173.38 |
| 10-05 22:37 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | BUY | 0.9499999957 | $164.80 |