PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Chia

0x2bd2574062fb6d8556ddb1050955f43dd9d4c21b

Realised P&L
$542.9k
Volume
$2.56M
Markets traded
51
Open portfolio
$437.37

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar21.2%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded51
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration87.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample44 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2600.045$136.50$643.45
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? · Yes0.0700.033$119.87$138.46
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0700.051$84.41$30.32
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6090.085$79.03$486.99
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.1140.070$17.56$10.91
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? · Yes0.2580.000$0.00$8.1k
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00$2.9k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 00:32Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?SELL0.2617509287$965.36
09-16 00:32Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?SELL0.1773126156$354.61
09-16 00:27Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.85$430.10
07-08 14:20Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6087901049$566.02
07-08 14:14Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4890118577$247.44
07-07 11:26Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?BUY0.11$17.94
07-07 11:21Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2599832642$776.73
07-07 11:05Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?BUY0.16$209.32
07-01 07:42Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?BUY0.12$10.54
07-01 07:26Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?BUY0.0703143389$38.12
06-30 07:19Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?BUY0.18$45.81
06-16 11:17Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?BUY0.07$114.73
06-16 11:12Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1680223015$242.00
06-05 22:49Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?SELL0.0268370673$14.85
06-05 22:49Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?SELL0.4674688889$42.07