Chia
0x2bd2574062fb6d8556ddb1050955f43dd9d4c21b
- Realised P&L
- $542.9k
- Volume
- $2.56M
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $437.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar21.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.045 | $136.50 | −$643.45 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.033 | $119.87 | −$138.46 |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.051 | $84.41 | −$30.32 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.609 | 0.085 | $79.03 | −$486.99 |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.070 | $17.56 | −$10.91 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.1k |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$528.4kat 0.245Trump wins every swing state?
- +$55.9kat 0.201Will Trump win 7 swing states?
- +$11.1kat 0.2202024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$4.1kat 0.482Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?
- +$1.7kat 0.400US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 00:32 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2617509287 | $965.36 |
| 09-16 00:32 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1773126156 | $354.61 |
| 09-16 00:27 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $430.10 |
| 07-08 14:20 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6087901049 | $566.02 |
| 07-08 14:14 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4890118577 | $247.44 |
| 07-07 11:26 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $17.94 |
| 07-07 11:21 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599832642 | $776.73 |
| 07-07 11:05 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $209.32 |
| 07-01 07:42 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $10.54 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0703143389 | $38.12 |
| 06-30 07:19 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $45.81 |
| 06-16 11:17 | Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $114.73 |
| 06-16 11:12 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1680223015 | $242.00 |
| 06-05 22:49 | Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.0268370673 | $14.85 |
| 06-05 22:49 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4674688889 | $42.07 |