TheNoobBeaver
0x2bcd792138a4e184f791b05d9c5c70e3c8f7cbfb
- Realised P&L
- $-196.02
- Volume
- $868.1k
- Markets traded
- 2,554
- Open portfolio
- $581.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,554
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.360Will Andrew Cuomo win Manhattan in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
- +$1.2kat 0.315Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.4381,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August?
- +$1.0kat 0.392Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner
- +$1.0kat 0.077Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:16 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.579999994 | $25.00 |
| 11-01 19:16 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas? | BUY | 0.007 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 19:15 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio? | BUY | 0.009 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 19:14 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 19:14 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.011 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 19:14 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $30.21 |
| 11-01 19:14 | Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $21.64 |
| 10-27 18:00 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999954 | $40.00 |
| 10-27 18:00 | Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms? | SELL | 0.8601792035 | $38.88 |
| 10-25 22:13 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4449999857 | $12.00 |
| 10-25 20:53 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6499999994 | $100.00 |
| 10-25 20:52 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.996 | $25.94 |
| 10-25 20:52 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $85.79 |
| 10-25 08:13 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999954 | $40.00 |
| 10-25 08:13 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.91 | $40.31 |