PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

TheNoobBeaver

0x2bcd792138a4e184f791b05d9c5c70e3c8f7cbfb

Realised P&L
$9.1k
Volume
$772.1k
Markets traded
2,389
Open portfolio
$5.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded2,389
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration28.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · No0.9060.980$544.80+$41.11
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee? · Yes0.5470.600$417.28+$36.61
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? · No0.6070.996$406.81+$158.67
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? · No0.8960.925$366.30+$11.30
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? · No0.9420.983$339.04+$14.03
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No0.9330.956$312.56+$7.57
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300? · No0.7930.860$274.79+$21.24
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No0.8640.890$268.89+$7.76
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? · No0.7751.000$238.97+$53.55
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · No0.9600.967$202.37+$1.36
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9380.961$143.36+$3.36
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? · No0.6120.875$128.24+$38.54
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? · Yes0.9420.935$124.02$0.98
Will Venezuela become 51st state? · No0.9680.969$115.12+$0.12
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? · No0.5890.635$107.74+$7.74

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 19:22Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?BUY0.591$5.91
08-02 17:54Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?BUY0.56875$22.75
08-02 17:24Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?BUY0.54975$21.99
08-02 17:05Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 3?BUY0.9299999863$65.00
08-02 09:20LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group AscendBUY0.279999972$6.00
08-02 09:12Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in August?BUY0.7199995392$1.00
08-02 09:02Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?BUY0.439267875$6.00
08-02 08:22LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerSELL0.81$18.43
08-02 08:16LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.4834080499$11.00
08-02 07:57Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 2?BUY0.9299999999$75.00
08-02 07:57Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 2?BUY0.92$11.96
08-02 07:49Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?BUY0.39$3.51
08-02 07:47Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?BUY0.809999997$35.00
08-02 07:46Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?BUY0.6799999873$15.00
08-01 18:51Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.722$5.23