TheNoobBeaver
0x2bcd792138a4e184f791b05d9c5c70e3c8f7cbfb
- Realised P&L
- $9.1k
- Volume
- $772.1k
- Markets traded
- 2,389
- Open portfolio
- $5.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded2,389
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.360Will Andrew Cuomo win Manhattan in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
- +$1.2kat 0.307Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.4381,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August?
- +$1.0kat 0.077Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?
- +$1.0kat 0.402Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:22 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.591 | $5.91 |
| 08-02 17:54 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.56875 | $22.75 |
| 08-02 17:24 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.54975 | $21.99 |
| 08-02 17:05 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.9299999863 | $65.00 |
| 08-02 09:20 | LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | BUY | 0.279999972 | $6.00 |
| 08-02 09:12 | Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in August? | BUY | 0.7199995392 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 09:02 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.439267875 | $6.00 |
| 08-02 08:22 | LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner | SELL | 0.81 | $18.43 |
| 08-02 08:16 | LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.4834080499 | $11.00 |
| 08-02 07:57 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $75.00 |
| 08-02 07:57 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.92 | $11.96 |
| 08-02 07:49 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $3.51 |
| 08-02 07:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.809999997 | $35.00 |
| 08-02 07:46 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? | BUY | 0.6799999873 | $15.00 |
| 08-01 18:51 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.722 | $5.23 |