idfinsider0228
0x2b76c1d12cd928b1d95a6d2c7f1e6f6e7f14edef
- Realised P&L
- $-5.5k
- Volume
- $7.22M
- Markets traded
- 146
- Open portfolio
- $33.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded146
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.793 | 0.835 | $28.1k | +$1.4k |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes | 0.156 | 0.070 | $3.2k | −$4.0k |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.902 | 0.942 | $2.1k | +$85.67 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.642 | 0.161 | $240.75 | −$722.26 |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.003 | $75.13 | −$2.2k |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.018 | $43.75 | −$256.27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.8k |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? · Yes | 0.131 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.53 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? · Yes | 0.271 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.3kat 0.326Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$21.6kat 0.264Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$13.8kat 0.602Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
- +$13.4kat 0.791US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$12.2kat 0.440Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 03:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.013 | $42.78 |
| 06-28 02:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.015169366 | $70.97 |
| 06-17 18:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.22 | $356.31 |
| 06-13 00:05 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY | 0.68 | $139.34 |
| 06-12 22:40 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $184.76 |
| 06-07 18:46 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1579748444 | $98.47 |
| 06-07 18:37 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1526392397 | $427.56 |
| 06-07 18:36 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.999 | $499.50 |
| 06-07 18:23 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1592982279 | $1.8k |
| 06-07 18:07 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 06-07 17:37 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1459187781 | $309.72 |
| 06-05 08:59 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1588274433 | $1.1k |
| 06-01 18:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.57 |
| 05-29 16:13 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.161 | $177.10 |
| 05-29 02:18 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY | 0.6764368351 | $770.62 |