Asteroidus
0x2b58820d0ccea7a30d47ad2140ab57ffe2f4f2ab
- Realised P&L
- $48.59
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $50.02
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.595 | $11.75 | −$2.67 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.635 | $10.41 | +$0.41 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.915 | $9.27 | +$0.66 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.635 | $6.23 | +$1.23 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.640 | $5.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.105 | $4.04 | −$0.96 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.195 | $1.84 | −$3.16 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.325 | $0.87 | −$0.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.15at 0.330US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$8.79at 0.706Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- +$6.82at 0.403Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$6.61at 0.417Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
- +$5.12at 0.637Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 01:31 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4399998658 | $1.18 |
| 09-22 19:06 | Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.12 |
| 09-22 07:52 | Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.16 |
| 09-21 11:20 | Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7299999873 | $14.42 |
| 09-21 11:16 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $5.00 |
| 09-21 11:13 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.609999986 | $10.00 |
| 09-20 09:33 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999901 | $8.61 |
| 09-20 09:29 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.936603139 | $8.35 |
| 09-18 06:03 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.669999995 | $20.00 |
| 09-18 06:03 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.93 | $22.25 |
| 09-09 18:03 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.8099999975 | $19.38 |
| 09-09 17:59 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1299999982 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 17:59 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5299999587 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 14:10 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.20 |
| 08-09 16:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $2.40 |