alpha.found
0x2b16cc339a1f7934ab84d1684e4c8ba7c1c2ec21
- Realised P&L
- $-705.52
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $194.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.756 | 0.840 | $107.84 | +$10.73 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.065 | $87.09 | −$13.83 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$195.78 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$190.82 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.14at 0.750Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$38.47at 0.670Will Russia enter Stinky by August 31?
- +$31.99at 0.862Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
- +$24.41at 0.869Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$20.23at 0.748Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 05:31 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.4650799508 | $75.62 |
| 09-23 23:09 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $50.00 |
| 09-23 23:09 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999997 | $50.00 |
| 09-23 23:09 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2351125465 | $58.79 |
| 09-23 23:09 | Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.026 | $2.34 |
| 09-23 23:09 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $2.89 |
| 09-23 23:09 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.50 |
| 09-23 23:09 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0152544428 | $0.73 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0883034263 | $200.00 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1019452393 | $200.00 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0713511045 | $50.00 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1422013733 | $200.00 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7525870179 | $50.00 |
| 08-31 18:58 | Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.9045725493 | $50.00 |
| 08-18 21:06 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $71.53 |