Paul.Dirac
0x2a57c798cebcd5f82008cfbd40fbbf6e47a91f06
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $50.2k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No | 0.814 | 0.920 | $576.10 | +$66.65 |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.299 | 0.365 | $449.68 | +$80.90 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.294 | 0.265 | $325.93 | −$35.19 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.213 | $262.87 | +$19.42 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.680 | 0.715 | $21.78 | +$1.07 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.135 | $16.32 | +$8.06 |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? · Yes | 0.613 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$116.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$367.95at 0.518Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
- +$310.55at 0.728Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?
- +$170.10at 0.370Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$127.48at 0.264Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$114.83at 0.784Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 20:12 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 09-15 20:12 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.07 | $4.96 |
| 09-07 13:15 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3380079681 | $8.48 |
| 09-07 13:14 | Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.34 | $17.00 |
| 09-07 13:13 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1129381933 | $5.70 |
| 08-30 08:47 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.68 | $20.71 |
| 08-09 23:52 | Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? | SELL | 0.78 | $149.76 |
| 08-09 23:51 | Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.78 | $31.20 |
| 08-09 23:50 | Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.22 | $51.04 |
| 08-09 18:21 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.32 | $53.76 |
| 08-08 19:49 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.82 | $90.50 |
| 08-03 08:05 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3 | $34.87 |
| 08-03 08:04 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.35 |
| 08-03 08:03 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.186 | $42.78 |
| 08-03 08:00 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1845016611 | $5.55 |