Paul.Dirac
0x2a57c798cebcd5f82008cfbd40fbbf6e47a91f06
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $49.1k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No | 0.812 | 0.850 | $438.46 | +$19.51 |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.305 | $360.52 | +$8.73 |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? · Yes | 0.613 | 0.785 | $299.92 | +$65.84 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.286 | 0.310 | $296.61 | +$23.01 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.201 | 0.176 | $208.41 | −$29.34 |
| Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.140 | $34.79 | −$50.13 |
| Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.735 | $29.40 | +$1.40 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? · Yes | 0.255 | 0.150 | $25.99 | −$18.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$367.95at 0.518Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
- +$310.55at 0.728Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?
- +$170.10at 0.370Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$114.83at 0.784Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
- +$110.00at 0.310Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 08:05 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3 | $34.87 |
| 08-03 08:04 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.35 |
| 08-03 08:03 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.186 | $42.78 |
| 08-03 08:00 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1845016611 | $5.55 |
| 07-29 08:46 | Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? | SELL | 0.998 | $172.03 |
| 07-24 15:25 | Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.56 |
| 07-24 14:08 | Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? | BUY | 0.932 | $84.92 |
| 07-24 12:01 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.26 | $26.00 |
| 07-24 11:59 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.216 | $10.80 |
| 07-24 11:59 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.215 | $1.07 |
| 07-24 11:56 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.2108292507 | $93.30 |
| 07-24 09:59 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 07-24 09:58 | Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3 | $270.00 |
| 07-24 07:07 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.83 | $15.27 |
| 07-24 07:06 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.83 | $23.57 |