bot0
0x2a553f317b55551f17db3b7bf62091b2778aa769
- Realised P&L
- $-123.00
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $2.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.491 | 0.487 | $1.07 | −$0.01 |
| Will Notre Dame Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · No | 0.690 | 0.680 | $1.06 | −$0.02 |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.39 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? · Up | 0.608 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.20 |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · No | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.64 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.28 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? · No | 0.649 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.22at 0.795US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
- +$8.33at 0.287Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during meetings with Orbán?
- +$8.27at 0.821Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 24?
- +$7.87at 0.864US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.637Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 18:44 | Will Notre Dame Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game? | BUY | 0.6899999744 | $1.08 |
| 09-13 18:38 | Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.93 |
| 09-13 17:41 | Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.07 |
| 09-12 14:59 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4909999259 | $1.08 |
| 09-12 14:18 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | SELL | 0.046 | $0.48 |
| 09-12 14:16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.04 |
| 09-10 15:46 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.867 | $1.73 |
| 09-10 15:44 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.868 | $1.81 |
| 06-16 10:59 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $23.70 |
| 06-15 09:32 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.864 | $4.56 |
| 05-27 05:36 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.98 |
| 05-21 09:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.937999955 | $1.00 |
| 04-29 21:53 | Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | SELL | 0.028 | $2.24 |
| 04-29 21:42 | Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.30 |
| 04-29 21:05 | Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |