ZZ-TIC-M1
0x2a4438ccc4669d0461cfba3f07825a40519252b5
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $126.0k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $83.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? · No | 0.063 | 0.052 | $76.06 | −$14.82 |
| Ren Zhengfei public appearance by September 30? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.195 | $3.90 | −$2.10 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.004 | $3.50 | −$17.50 |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.237 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$355.00 |
| Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$205.41at 0.956Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
- +$78.99at 0.990Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
- +$61.27at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
- +$60.00at 0.975Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$50.34at 0.989Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 07:25 | Ren Zhengfei public appearance by September 30? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 09-16 15:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.11 | $110.00 |
| 09-16 15:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $880.00 |
| 09-16 15:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $29.92 |
| 09-16 15:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.3k |
| 09-04 14:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.49 | $506.71 |
| 09-04 14:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.49 | $245.00 |
| 07-17 08:51 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.22 |
| 07-17 08:48 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.22 |
| 06-25 05:06 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? | BUY | 0.986 | $31.80 |
| 06-25 05:06 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? | BUY | 0.987 | $98.70 |
| 06-25 05:06 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? | BUY | 0.987 | $98.70 |
| 06-25 05:06 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? | BUY | 0.987 | $98.70 |
| 06-25 05:05 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? | BUY | 0.987 | $493.50 |
| 06-25 05:05 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? | BUY | 0.987 | $987.00 |