0x29e32c84b6190100a8499c7d30067c2299b5f115
0x29e32c84b6190100a8499c7d30067c2299b5f115
- Realised P&L
- $6.61
- Volume
- $539.14
- Markets traded
- 191
- Open portfolio
- $4.63
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded191
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.410 | $1.78 | +$0.78 |
| Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.240 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? · Down | 0.410 | 0.390 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.468 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.06at 0.230US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$6.01at 0.260US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$5.94at 0.268S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$5.36at 0.288Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$4.64at 0.319Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 03:49 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.498999755 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:20 | Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:35 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:33 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 18:33 | Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | BUY | 0.6699996918 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 22:27 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 14:25 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:25 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:24 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:23 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:19 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:15 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 89% to 92%? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:55 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 03:53 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |