Leansurfer23
0x2947609b6fa09a3c4405c7107578cc1e225def7e
- Realised P&L
- $-90.48
- Volume
- $475.36
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $26.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-19.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $22.06 | +$2.34 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.512 | $4.29 | −$0.31 |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Colts vs. Chiefs · Colts | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? · No | 0.283 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$72.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.75at 0.930Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
- +$0.09at 0.980Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 28?
- +$-0.87at 0.230Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-24 23:06 | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 11-24 23:05 | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 11-24 19:32 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | BUY | 0.3509122719 | $20.00 |
| 11-24 05:39 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | BUY | 0.2640047253 | $10.08 |
| 11-24 05:38 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.19 | $4.13 |
| 11-24 05:37 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | BUY | 0.2646163018 | $40.00 |
| 11-23 09:04 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.8 | $19.72 |
| 11-23 08:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 28? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.50 |
| 11-23 08:56 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | BUY | 0.239 | $2.25 |
| 11-23 08:54 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.5499999701 | $4.60 |
| 11-23 08:53 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 11-23 08:50 | Colts vs. Chiefs | BUY | 0.359999987 | $10.00 |