0x287b42245e357718fd5a491fb93273eee16e6a16
0x287b42245e357718fd5a491fb93273eee16e6a16
- Realised P&L
- $-57.63
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $30.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.043 | $26.75 | −$13.25 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.011 | $3.31 | −$4.69 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET · Up | 0.283 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.64 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET · Down | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET · Down | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET · Up | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 22? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET · Up | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.96at 0.811Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$10.96at 0.475Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$4.11at 0.811Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$3.46at 0.747Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
- +$1.72at 0.627Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 09:14 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0782243082 | $10.00 |
| 10-04 14:09 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0690814242 | $20.00 |
| 10-02 09:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.74 | $32.17 |
| 09-23 11:21 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.026554588 | $8.00 |
| 09-22 08:23 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.2203735331 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 08:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4599999986 | $20.00 |
| 09-20 11:35 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0471445045 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 18:19 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8099999951 | $49.11 |
| 09-18 18:07 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8099999889 | $2.93 |
| 09-18 18:03 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8099999867 | $6.11 |
| 09-12 07:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.92 |
| 09-11 08:07 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 17:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.52 | $8.38 |
| 08-28 05:47 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3099999622 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 15:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.50 |