0x27e1b2a4782edce3ab3a5daa151fa6eaba868ec1
0x27e1b2a4782edce3ab3a5daa151fa6eaba868ec1
- Realised P&L
- $50.90
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $638.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.957 | $225.12 | +$25.12 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.898 | 0.971 | $216.26 | +$16.26 |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.942 | 0.964 | $93.99 | +$2.11 |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.805 | $53.98 | −$6.37 |
| Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.650 | $49.03 | −$11.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$162.30at 0.384First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei
- +$43.71at 0.695First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea
- +$33.10at 0.616Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$17.49at 0.826Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
- +$5.56at 0.900Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 12:28 | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8 | $60.35 |
| 09-15 12:27 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.899999994 | $60.35 |
| 07-19 20:14 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6009999967 | $51.80 |
| 07-07 17:23 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3369999977 | $69.56 |
| 04-29 00:08 | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9423518514 | $91.88 |
| 04-29 00:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | SELL | 0.995 | $103.17 |
| 04-17 15:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | BUY | 0.8149999989 | $83.37 |
| 03-15 03:54 | Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? | SELL | 0.0820787031 | $6.28 |
| 03-14 20:14 | Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? | BUY | 0.6536585347 | $50.00 |
| 03-10 13:10 | Will Korea make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? | BUY | 0.9299999993 | $50.00 |
| 03-10 09:45 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8979999959 | $200.00 |
| 03-10 09:41 | Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? | BUY | 0.9 | $50.00 |
| 03-09 13:12 | First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea | SELL | 0.999 | $143.71 |
| 03-09 11:25 | Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | BUY | 0.2358110508 | $100.00 |
| 03-08 19:13 | First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea | BUY | 0.6951616733 | $100.00 |