0x27cb1274600f134279e6741a4512d71e273ac6dd
- Realised P&L
- $2.01
- Volume
- $92.40
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $11.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.760 | 1.000 | $2.63 | +$0.63 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · Yes | 0.511 | 0.536 | $2.10 | +$0.10 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.670 | $2.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.515 | $1.36 | −$0.64 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.365 | $1.09 | −$0.07 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.360 | 0.115 | $0.64 | −$1.36 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.090 | $0.60 | −$1.40 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.165 | $0.43 | −$1.57 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.690 | 0.110 | $0.32 | −$1.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.06at 0.330Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.390Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.85at 0.520Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.83at 0.390Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.53at 0.570Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 11:57 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 03:54 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | BUY | 0.5109999175 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 19:52 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 11:52 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 03:51 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 19:43 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 19:34 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 09:30 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999755 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:52 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:48 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:15 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:24 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 19:24 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 11:23 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.17 |