0x278f442B68B06e99461C123139d3233265e910b8-1774890445809
0x278f442b68b06e99461c123139d3233265e910b8
- Realised P&L
- $-189.16
- Volume
- $18.1k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $40.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration30.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.054 | $40.50 | −$59.50 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? · No | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? · No | 0.456 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$210.83at 0.480US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$130.11at 0.420Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
- +$104.18at 0.682Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
- +$97.09at 0.520US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$92.87at 0.394Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 21:55 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.058 | $159.74 |
| 05-27 10:27 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1069999997 | $294.70 |
| 05-23 21:52 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8004726275 | $277.08 |
| 05-21 15:59 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL | 0.0370200607 | $27.18 |
| 05-17 13:02 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999988 | $180.00 |
| 05-17 13:00 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $58.00 |
| 05-16 12:22 | Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $187.82 |
| 05-16 12:04 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? | BUY | 0.053319176 | $40.00 |
| 05-14 12:32 | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | SELL | 0.968 | $230.47 |
| 04-26 22:32 | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $100.00 |
| 04-26 15:05 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.1333333333 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 20:17 | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.7603583678 | $192.86 |
| 04-24 18:22 | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.3942307678 | $100.00 |
| 04-23 23:58 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | BUY | 0.1099999962 | $25.00 |
| 04-23 23:57 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.4561223009 | $150.00 |