PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x278f442B68B06e99461C123139d3233265e910b8-1774890445809

0x278f442b68b06e99461c123139d3233265e910b8

Realised P&L
$-189.16
Volume
$18.1k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$40.50

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration30.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes0.1330.054$40.50$59.50
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00$58.00
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? · Yes0.0530.000$0.00$40.00
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? · No0.0150.000$0.00$15.00
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$25.00
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? · Yes0.4900.000$0.00$100.00
Will Trump visit China by May 15? · No0.4560.000$0.00$150.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-04 21:55Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.058$159.74
05-27 10:27Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1069999997$294.70
05-23 21:52US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?SELL0.8004726275$277.08
05-21 15:59US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?SELL0.0370200607$27.18
05-17 13:02US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?BUY0.5199999988$180.00
05-17 13:00Israel closes its airspace by May 31?BUY0.32$58.00
05-16 12:22Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?BUY0.7899999997$187.82
05-16 12:04Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?BUY0.053319176$40.00
05-14 12:32Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?SELL0.968$230.47
04-26 22:32Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?BUY0.4199999977$100.00
04-26 15:05Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?BUY0.1333333333$100.00
04-25 20:17Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?SELL0.7603583678$192.86
04-24 18:22Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?BUY0.3942307678$100.00
04-23 23:58Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?BUY0.1099999962$25.00
04-23 23:57Will Trump visit China by May 15?BUY0.4561223009$150.00