0x2786a18c1ed17b609680bfee1156adee4eeb35e8
0x2786a18c1ed17b609680bfee1156adee4eeb35e8
- Realised P&L
- $-8.62
- Volume
- $218.74
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $2.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · No | 0.509 | 0.772 | $1.52 | +$0.52 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? · Up | 0.660 | 0.585 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.215 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.38at 0.321Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.70at 0.432Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
- +$1.92at 0.510US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.91at 0.490Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 09:07 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 01:07 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.5089998814 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 17:04 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 21:01 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 23:42 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:37 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:30 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:26 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 22:35 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 14:26 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:01 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:00 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:00 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 11:30 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:49 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |