AdventureKing
0x277075448fa0ad79f5394597e07a1b0b97b50b88
- Realised P&L
- $-121.01
- Volume
- $20.9k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $535.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $310.48 | −$0.16 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.28 in August? · No | 0.991 | 0.629 | $132.79 | −$76.43 |
| Will Chainlink reach $18 in August? · No | 0.990 | 0.920 | $92.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.95at 0.990Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
- +$7.87at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
- +$3.33at 0.996Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?
- +$3.30at 0.989Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 15:54 | Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9985938273 | $172.00 |
| 08-02 15:53 | Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $310.64 |
| 08-02 15:50 | Will Ethena reach $0.28 in August? | BUY | 0.991 | $209.22 |
| 08-02 13:50 | Will Chainlink reach $18 in August? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 07-24 23:13 | Will Chainlink reach $14 in July? | BUY | 0.9925467821 | $219.00 |
| 07-24 23:12 | Will Chainlink dip to $4 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $48.17 |
| 07-21 15:09 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of July 20 above $1.50? | BUY | 0.999 | $255.00 |
| 07-17 01:07 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$235 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17? | BUY | 0.9984327078 | $176.00 |
| 07-17 01:05 | Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of July 13 above $275? | BUY | 0.99 | $54.45 |
| 07-17 01:04 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of July 13 above $235? | BUY | 0.9985289951 | $212.00 |
| 07-17 01:03 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of July 13 above $240? | BUY | 0.999 | $114.89 |
| 07-12 01:47 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.993 | $237.33 |
| 07-12 01:45 | Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $111.49 |
| 07-12 01:45 | Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 07-12 01:44 | Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.94 |