AdventureKing
0x277075448fa0ad79f5394597e07a1b0b97b50b88
- Realised P&L
- $-34.80
- Volume
- $24.1k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $807.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by September 30? · No | 0.988 | 0.999 | $357.46 | +$3.76 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.989 | 0.999 | $219.78 | +$2.20 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $119.94 | +$0.18 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $109.94 | +$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.95at 0.990Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
- +$7.48at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
- +$3.20at 0.959Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
- +$3.20at 0.996Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 05:30 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $109.78 |
| 09-22 05:30 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $119.76 |
| 09-15 06:53 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 14 – Sep 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $155.84 |
| 09-15 06:53 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 14 – Sep 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $46.95 |
| 09-12 00:11 | Will XRP reach $2.10 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.999 | $228.77 |
| 09-05 14:41 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $240.76 |
| 09-04 05:03 | Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $119.00 |
| 09-04 05:01 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 31 above $5.00? | BUY | 0.9981244506 | $114.00 |
| 09-03 06:11 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $353.70 |
| 08-11 09:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 08-08 03:21 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on August 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $156.44 |
| 08-08 03:20 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on August 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 08-08 03:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.9877098364 | $209.00 |
| 08-06 05:24 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of August 3 above $175? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 08-06 05:24 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Aug 3 – Aug 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |