0x275DB13DcCE9202c3F6E7bAfA04ce1ddA6144589-1771710012886
0x275db13dcce9202c3f6e7bafa04ce1dda6144589
- Realised P&L
- $81.89
- Volume
- $4.7k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $58.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.378 | 1.000 | $26.45 | +$16.45 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? · Yes | 0.577 | 1.000 | $17.33 | +$7.33 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.055 | $8.59 | −$16.41 |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.046 | $6.05 | −$13.95 |
| Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? · No | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET · Up | 0.329 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.98 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes | 0.295 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$122.64 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET · Up | 0.592 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.98 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET · Down | 0.485 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.00at 0.320US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$48.82at 0.170US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$21.67at 0.480US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$20.41at 0.498Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
- +$13.62at 0.539Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 02:21 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY | 0.5771144103 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 02:20 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0029999997 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 02:19 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.377999983 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 02:19 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.1537462938 | $20.00 |
| 03-23 07:12 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $25.00 |
| 03-23 07:10 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.0599999978 | $24.95 |
| 03-23 07:08 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.32 | $40.00 |
| 02-21 22:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $9.74 |
| 02-21 22:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.1263913477 | $9.94 |
| 02-21 22:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4215686072 | $9.70 |
| 02-21 22:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | SELL | 0.86 | $15.97 |
| 02-21 22:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5299999899 | $9.69 |
| 02-21 22:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $21.36 |
| 02-21 22:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4471205256 | $9.69 |
| 02-21 22:08 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999952 | $20.00 |