eastpak1
0x27185b17f770b6a4604b129826f1ed8259031ef8
- Realised P&L
- $-4.29
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $2.91
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.059 | $2.54 | +$0.28 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.055 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
| Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.93 |
| Will SC Austria Lustenau win on 2026-09-05? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.68 |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.59 |
| Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.93 |
| Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.56 |
| Will SC Rheindorf Altach win on 2026-09-04? · No | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.71 |
| Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.69at 0.114Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
- +$7.15at 0.196Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
- +$2.09at 0.649Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?
- +$0.81at 0.789Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
- +$-0.34at 0.462Will Club Guabirá win on 2026-09-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 17:07 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.0519999994 | $2.26 |
| 09-15 20:06 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.36 | $3.59 |
| 09-14 17:13 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.035 | $0.82 |
| 09-14 14:15 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.67 |
| 09-09 22:54 | Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.81 |
| 09-09 22:54 | Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.65 | $3.93 |
| 09-09 22:54 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.41 | $3.93 |
| 09-09 19:49 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.65 | $3.93 |
| 09-09 15:48 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 11:56 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 20:18 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 15:00 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.84 |
| 09-06 14:58 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.002999997 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 14:48 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.693 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 14:48 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.7579999394 | $1.00 |