rb50
0x270a34538f7c315f01cc751a5d88557751604246
- Realised P&L
- $-21.02
- Volume
- $40.1k
- Markets traded
- 140
- Open portfolio
- $14.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded140
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.170 | $14.58 | −$47.17 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.14 |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? · No | 0.337 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$242.32 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.99 |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? · No | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$252.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.513Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?
- +$641.19at 0.107Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?
- +$239.00at 0.602Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
- +$52.44at 0.813Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
- +$50.74at 0.950Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 20:54 | Will Cisco say "Fiscal" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.98 | $11.42 |
| 08-11 21:33 | Will Cava say "Catering" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8782409116 | $21.92 |
| 08-11 21:06 | Will Cava say "Shrimp" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9799999803 | $30.92 |
| 08-11 21:05 | Will Cava say "Expansion" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.98 | $62.39 |
| 08-10 21:39 | Will Hims say "Wearable" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.97 | $6.59 |
| 08-10 21:27 | Will Hims say "Subscriber" 15+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9602764093 | $50.07 |
| 08-10 21:24 | Will Hims say "Quarter" 20+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9726053075 | $174.32 |
| 08-10 21:23 | Will Hims say "Europe" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.98 | $9.80 |
| 08-10 21:16 | Will Hims say "Peptide" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.98 | $65.74 |
| 08-06 21:59 | Will Airbnb say "Guest" 20+ times during earnings call? | SELL | 0.5606464665 | $59.58 |
| 08-06 21:40 | Will Airbnb say "International" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9750304139 | $19.62 |
| 08-06 21:20 | Will Airbnb say "Guest" 20+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9794006356 | $104.09 |
| 08-06 21:09 | Will Airbnb say "World Cup" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9755964023 | $48.74 |
| 08-06 21:08 | Will Airbnb say "Boutique" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.31 |
| 08-06 13:25 | Will Elon post "Trump" on X this week? | BUY | 0.4234496238 | $99.92 |