pangdebu
0x261c1d89e871b488e2e96b8a2d3c5c1d759bf12e
- Realised P&L
- $-5.23
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $11.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $8.89 | −$0.00 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.958 | 0.979 | $1.33 | +$0.03 |
| Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.645 | $1.31 | −$0.11 |
| Hagen: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Henri Squire · Federico Agustin Gomez | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.54 |
| Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Georgia vs. Alabama · Alabama | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.37at 0.780Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$0.27at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$0.26at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?
- +$0.26at 0.998Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$0.26at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:06 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.90 |
| 10-18 10:05 | Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6999998028 | $1.42 |
| 09-10 12:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.30 |
| 08-04 08:28 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 500m and 600m by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.30 |
| 08-04 08:25 | Hagen: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Henri Squire | BUY | 0.5 | $1.54 |
| 07-23 06:03 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.90 |
| 05-31 08:26 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $134.00 |
| 05-12 11:19 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999935 | $134.00 |
| 04-26 09:21 | Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? | BUY | 0.9989999935 | $133.99 |
| 04-21 02:58 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $134.99 |
| 04-16 02:00 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999982 | $134.89 |
| 04-09 09:26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $134.78 |
| 03-24 08:25 | Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in March 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $130.56 |
| 03-19 08:41 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $130.00 |
| 03-11 11:22 | Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.40 |