0x261244c3e8aCA499b11b076294502aaE128Bc31c-1774605124444
0x261244c3e8aca499b11b076294502aae128bc31c
- Realised P&L
- $123.81
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $28.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 17? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.984 | $5.40 | +$0.40 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16? · Yes | 0.930 | 1.000 | $5.37 | +$0.37 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.890 | $5.00 | +$0.00 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 23? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.780 | $4.29 | −$0.71 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 24? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.770 | $4.23 | −$0.77 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.775 | $4.21 | −$0.79 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET · Down | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET · Down | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$116.70at 0.724Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
- +$50.24at 0.096Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
- +$31.84at 0.761Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
- +$27.32at 0.527Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
- +$19.74at 0.938Israel military action against Lebanon on September 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |