birdecok
0x254005a4269d788736a6a28fb4102c1bedf165ee
- Realised P&L
- $-8.5k
- Volume
- $28.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $30.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-30.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 12? · No | 0.986 | 0.990 | $5.68 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on October 12? · No | 0.998 | 0.984 | $5.43 | −$0.08 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C or below on October 12? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $4.02 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on October 12? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $3.37 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 12? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $3.37 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 12? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $2.87 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 12? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $2.12 | −$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 12? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $1.67 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 12? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $1.56 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-8.5kat 0.900Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 10:36 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 12? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.87 |
| 10-11 10:36 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.57 |
| 10-11 10:36 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C or below on October 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.02 |
| 10-11 10:36 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.37 |
| 10-11 10:36 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.9859999997 | $5.66 |
| 10-11 10:35 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.67 |
| 10-11 10:35 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.12 |
| 10-11 10:35 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on October 12? | BUY | 0.9984725926 | $3.37 |
| 10-11 10:35 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.51 |
| 10-11 10:35 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15? | SELL | 0.29 | $4.1k |
| 10-11 10:34 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $12.6k |