0x250Fe8D77be2FE3D9A0329A0d3dB38cb4E5bBA3D-1781637083362
0x250fe8d77be2fe3d9a0329a0d3db38cb4e5bba3d
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $7.6k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $9.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar21.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.009 | $9.28 | −$1.22 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 2AM ET · Up | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.210Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.48at 0.034Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$0.19at 0.963Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
- +$-0.39at 0.088New pandemic in 2026?
- +$-0.68at 0.130Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 08:53 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0096135447 | $10.50 |
| 09-02 08:04 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $3.50 |
| 09-02 08:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.73 |
| 08-07 20:45 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999779 | $4.41 |
| 08-07 20:40 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $4.21 |
| 07-27 07:10 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $3.37 |
| 07-27 07:09 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.94 |
| 07-27 07:06 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0879683792 | $4.33 |
| 07-27 06:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 2AM ET | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 03:04 | Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? | BUY | 0.0362493209 | $9.00 |
| 07-22 04:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |
| 07-22 04:38 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $8.67 |
| 07-22 02:42 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0149999985 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 22:53 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 07-14 20:18 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3789999984 | $112.78 |