0x2503bdb78d9a2af985f9423c10554f3e1b179be5
- Realised P&L
- $-876.59
- Volume
- $82.0k
- Markets traded
- 178
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded178
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.57at 0.280Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
- +$61.27at 0.710Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$57.39at 0.120Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
- +$56.04at 0.098Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
- +$51.75at 0.250Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 14:24 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999972 | $25.00 |
| 08-03 05:58 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999942 | $15.00 |
| 08-03 05:58 | Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.7899999989 | $15.00 |
| 08-03 05:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999799 | $25.00 |
| 08-03 05:56 | Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999973 | $25.00 |
| 08-03 00:24 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $13.70 |
| 08-03 00:23 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $22.79 |
| 08-03 00:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.3440383569 | $25.29 |
| 08-02 05:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.3399999946 | $25.00 |
| 08-02 05:31 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.3399999946 | $25.00 |
| 08-02 04:41 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 04:40 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 03:24 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3218259455 | $15.83 |
| 07-31 16:50 | Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | BUY | 0.7599999666 | $20.00 |
| 07-31 16:49 | Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $36.00 |