Ideal
0x240b9e1c5233b64e5b8855371cf27f53452df5ef
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $393.8k
- Markets traded
- 201
- Open portfolio
- $32.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded201
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.152Will Biden drop out by Monday?
- +$1.7kat 0.260Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
- +$1.3kat 0.613Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote?
- +$1.2kat 0.5401 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?
- +$738.66at 0.318Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 21:19 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.964 | $2.0k |
| 09-09 21:15 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.759 | $3.0k |
| 09-09 21:13 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.927 | $604.35 |
| 07-03 12:01 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $200.00 |
| 03-12 06:53 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.869917 | $260.98 |
| 03-12 06:30 | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $22.00 |
| 02-07 04:23 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.971 | $765.15 |
| 02-07 02:59 | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? | BUY | 0.26 | $0.48 |
| 01-30 00:22 | Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | BUY | 0.968 | $615.06 |
| 01-29 23:43 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.943 | $91.00 |
| 01-29 23:35 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.917 | $62.79 |
| 01-29 12:58 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $11.90 |
| 01-13 23:34 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.913 | $112.16 |
| 01-13 23:24 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.913 | $180.45 |
| 01-13 23:17 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.913 | $340.05 |